This week’s Chart of the Week highlights the largest gap between expected and actual S&P 500 earnings in Q1 2026 since the post‑pandemic earnings surge of 2021. In the current environment, investors may be questioning how markets are pushing toward all‑time highs despite elevated geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. The answer increasingly lies in fundamentals, as companies continue to deliver results well ahead of expectations. Earnings strength has been most pronounced in the technology sector, where sustained AI‑related investment is supporting revenue growth and margin expansion. Importantly, analyst earnings estimates for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 are moving higher, reinforcing the view that markets are responding more to improving earnings visibility than near‑term macro headlines.