
The chart of the week shows that world oil inventories are falling at a record pace, about 1 billion barrels of oil over a 2-month period. Oil inventories increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 but the amount of stored oil began to decline steadily over time as the economy got back to normal. Fast forward until today, according to the estimates, inventories may continue falling through 2026 if the crisis is not resolved. Should the conflict in Iran continue, and the Straight of Hormuz remains shut, oil inventories are expected to reach the operational stress level of 7.6 billion barrels by June 2026 and may drop to the operational floor level of 6.8 billion barrels by September 2026. By dropping this low, it could affect pipelines and refineries. The rapidly shrinking stockpiles create an environment where we could see extreme price spikes and shortages, leaving governments and industries with fewer options to cushion the impact of the loss.