
This week’s chart highlights a historical outlier in the earnings outlook for the S&P 500. Earnings estimates typically fall as a given year approaches, making the steady upward revisions for both 2026 and 2027 particularly unusual. Estimates are now up roughly 15% and 13%, respectively, from where they stood at the start of the prior calendar year. This rare pattern reflects a combination of resilient economic growth, strong corporate profitability, and a powerful tailwind from AI-related investment spending. Importantly, earnings growth is no longer coming from just the largest technology companies, as profit expectations have improved across a broader range of sectors. As a result, much of the stock market’s advance has been driven by improving earnings fundamentals rather than simply higher valuations, helping support the continued strength of U.S. equities.