The chart of the week looks at the rate of inflation versus the federal funds rate during the last 8 interest rate hiking cycles. As you can see, during each of these hiking cycles the federal funds rate went above the current inflation rate. Based on where we are currently at, with inflation still above 8%, one of three options likely exist. Either we have to raise rates until they are higher than inflation, inflation falls below the federal funds rate or a combination of the two where inflation falls and rates increase. We would think the third option is most likely as inflation trends down and the Fed continues in their hiking cycle. We will continue to keep a very close eye on both.

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