This chart of the week examines the changes in recession odds and the S&P 500 projections for 2025. Following Liberation Day, expectations for a recession increased significantly, driven by heightened uncertainty in global markets. Recession odds rose to over 65%, up from less than 20% at the beginning of the year. Along with these rising recession expectations, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20%. However, sentiment shifted when tariff pauses were announced. As a result, fears of a recession eased considerably, and the S&P 500 recovered much of its recent losses, reflecting renewed optimism among investors.